Recaps: Star Tribune, ESPN-AP
Four Factors courtesy of Statsheet.com
Quote of the Night: “The effort, the energy, the passion, just that competitiveness you need, it just wasn’t there tonight.” Kurt Rambis
Well there it is Wolves fans. The worst start in franchise history. Two more losses and they’ll equal the franchise worst 16 game skid. Read more…
Previews: ESPN-AP, Star Tribune - Jerry Zgoda
Advanced Stats courtesy of TrueHoop Network’s Queen City Hoops:
Offensive Efficiency:
Wolves: 92.7 points/100 possessions (29th)
Nuggets: 109.9 points/100 possessions (4th)
Defensive Efficiency:
Wolves: 108.1 points allowed/100 possessions (25th)
Nuggets: 103.2 points allowed/100 possessions (11th)
Pace:
Wolves: 95.3 (11th)
Nuggets: 96.6 (4th)
Probable Nuggets starters:
Billups, Affalo, Anthony, Martin, Nene
Bonus!: A possible Birdman sighting! He’s day to day but let’s see if any of you can guess which of his 874 tattoos is newest?
Well the Nuggets did lose a game to the Clippers last week… “So you’re saying there’s a chance….” No not really. Unless we’re talking Dumb and Dumber 1 in a million type stuff. Read more…
Recaps: ESPN-AP, Star Tribune-Jerry Zgoda, ClipperBlog
UPDATE: Be sure to check out this piece on Al Jefferson by Kevin Arnovitz of ClipperBlog and Truehoop.
Four Factors Courtesy of Statsheet.com
Quote of the Night: As the Wolves frantically moved the ball around late in the 4th quarter and the shot clock winding down, one of the Clippers announcers made this observation:
“The Wolves don’t really have many shooters on the court right now. {Pause} The Wolves don’t really have too many shooters on their roster though.”
H T-W Analysis:
Did anyone really think that they were going to pull it off last night? Me, neither. Read more…
Previews: ESPN-AP, Star Tribune
Advanced Stats courtesy of Hoopdata:
Offensive Efficiency:
Wolves: 91.3 points/100 possessions (28th)
Clippers: 101.9 points/100 possessions (21st)
Defensive Efficiency:
Wolves: 106.9 points allowed/100 possessions (24th)
Clippers: 104.8 points allowed/100 possessions (19th)
Probable Clippers starters:
Baron Davis, Ricky Davis, Al Thornton, Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman
Bonus!: You need more than Ricky Davis!??! How about Craig “The Rhino” Smith but this time with goggles!
The Wolves came oh so close to beating the Clippers in their last meeting but fell 93-90 on November 2nd. Then again that was the same week they somehow hung with the Celtics. In reality that week was an aberration as they shot the lights out against the Celtics and the Clippers were merely trying to give the game away down the stretch.
The key again for the Wolves is to put 4 good quarters together which they haven’t been able to do at all this season. But as seen previously if any team is going to give them a second chance it just might be the Clippers.
Keys to the game:
Finding another scorer besides Al Jefferson. This has by far been the biggest problem for them this season as Jonny Flynn’s scoring ability has been mostly handcuffed by Rambis’ desire for him to get the offense running and be a traditional point guard. (Read that sentence again, it’s a contradiction I know.) In fact the more this goes on the more you have to question a coach trying to fit the players into the system rather than find a system to fit the players. Flynn’s ability to create is what allows him to score which in turn allows him to dish once the defense reacts. Without him scoring early he neither gets in a rhythm nor is able to create for his teammates. The only other efficient second scorer we’ve seen this season was Ramon’s game against Houston last week when the second unit came in and rebounded and were able to get out and run.
Rebounding. Going against twin towers Camby and Kaman, and not to mention Smith off the bench, the Wolves need to key in on rebounding the ball tonight. If they can they just might be able to get out and run and create some offense the easy way. It’s also key to their offense as they don’t shoot well they need as many second chance points as they can get.
Mental Toughness. This is the key Rambis has been harping after every game. This team continues to breakdown every game just all of a sudden when one or two bad things happen. Somebody needs to step up and anchor this team through those stretches and get the to play with mental toughness for all 4 quarters. Paging Jonny Flynn, paging Jonny Flynn.
Prediction: The Wolves shoot the ball better than usual, Jonny is allowed to create on offense and run the pick-and-roll with Hollins and finishes with 24 points, the Wolves win the rebounding category and are able to run for 20 fastbreak points, and the Clippers stumble down the stretch which all leads to the Wolves second win of the season 103-94. Believe it? Yea, neither do I. Probably another 98-92 type loss that really wasn’t that close. But hey maybe it won’t be by double digits for the first time in 8 games.
Four Factors courtesy of Statsheet.com
Quote of the Night: “This team has to learn how to play before that’s going to come out.” -Kurt Rambis, talking about waiting to use his big motivational speech to inspire his team. Translation: They are playing so bad it’s not worth it to try and motivate them.
WELCOME BACK BIG AL!
It was another tough loss with the Wolves getting frustrated and wilting down the stretch but how good did it feel to see Al Jefferson back to being his own self? Really he was the only bright spot in the game for the starters and hit his first 8 shots of the game on his way to a 20 and 10 night.
It was though a pretty bad loss. Houston is certainly an underrated team this season with both McGrady and Yao out, but they were on the second night of a back-to-back and the Wolves had been off since Saturday. On top of that the Wolves were out-rebounded by 10 (again) even though Houston’s frontline was giving up about 5 feet collectively. Our starters looked dreadful other than Jefferson’s line, and was highlighted by Corey Brewer who finished 3-7 from the field, 0-2 from the free throw line, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 2 steals and the kicker: 5 turnovers. I’ll say it again, Corey Brewer is not the answer for the Wolves on the wing. He could be a nice player on a team with solid starters around him, but that is something the Wolves won’t be for a long time. Every time he gets the ball on offense I wince. That’s never a good sign when you expect something bad to happen.
On the flip side of the stinker the starters put up the bench played very well and finished with a collective +2 +/- rating. Led by Damien Wilkins energy and rebounding (9 rebs. and 5 offensive) as well as the 2nd unit was able to get out and run a little bit which led to Ramon Sessions finishing with a nice line of 16 pts and 5 assists, 3 steals in just 24 minutes. If the bench can continue to bring this kind of energy the Wolves can win a game when the starters decide to show up.
Now for all of you questioning whether or not Rambis should put Flynn on the bench and have Sessions be the team’s point guard keep in mind that their performances were mostly due to their supporting casts. Flynn had Jefferson going to work solo on the block in mostly a half-court game while Sessions had the 2nd unit guys bringing energy and using it to rebound and push the ball. Now I’m not saying Flynn didn’t have a bad game, but lets not overreact to Sessions having a better one. It’s clear that Flynn is mostly handcuffed to either pass the ball off to the wing or let it fly from 3. The more I see him look uncomfortable the more I wonder when Rambis is going to let him run the pick and roll where he is most lethal.
Coming up next: Blazers in Portland on Saturday night.
As NBA General Managers go (or in this case President of Basketball Operations) David Kahn has been more than open to Timberwolves fans in talking about the team, their future, and the direction he has planned for them. Over the weekend he wrote his second letter to Wolves fans highlighting his disappointment in the team’s play so far and pledging along with the coaching staff to continue to work harder to get them to play better. His said similar things as well in interviews with Jonah Ballow of Timberwolves.com and Ray Richardson of the Pioneer Press.
One of the highlights from the letter and the key message I thought was the following:
Starts running and attacking more on offense, as Kurt and I envision this team playing in the long term.On that last point, it has been hard for us to sustain a running game without our best rebounder, Kevin Love, and with Al Jefferson still not all the way back from his ACL knee injury. And our defense has been poor at times. It is extremely difficult to run when you are taking the ball out of the basket. But make no mistake – this will become a running team and that will be our identity.
There’s both bad news and good news in here. The bad news is that until Love returns and Big Al gets healthier and closer to his old self, the Wolves really won’t be able to run much. This of course means we’ll continue to not really have an identity. The good news is that when they do get their two big men back, the Wolves will be able to and should find their identity (finally) and it should be built around being a running team that plays an exciting brand of basketball.
Looking at this idea of the team’s identity explains why we haven’t seen much good basketball through the first 11 games of the season. Without an identity the team has been completely lost. As fans we’ve quickly become frustrated at the fact that the team has said they were going to run, and haven’t, have said they were going to run the triangle, and haven’t, and have said they were going to be exciting, and haven’t. The problem has been that the team has absolutely, positively no identity right now. They have no strengths to key on and rally around. Their best two rebounders, Love and Jefferson, are out so they can’t get the running game started. On top of that they struggle to get stops on defense. So using the fast break to get easy points is out. Meanwhile their remaining personnel’s best skills, Flynn and Sessions ability to run the pick-and-roll and get to the free throw line, has been completely handcuffed by the coaches installation of the equivalent to advanced calculus for the players, aka the triangle offense. So what exactly do the Wolves have for an identity? As we have so clearly seen through 11 games, there isn’t all that much to build on. Other than the occasional drive by Flynn or Sessions, a few decent Nathan Jawai or Ryan Hollins post-ups, a few decent Ryan Gomes or Oleksiy Pecherov jump shots, and a 1 in 10 succesful drives to the hoop by Corey Brewer. When you look at the options they do have it’s no wonder the Wolves have the third worst offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage.
So unfortunately again as it has been and will continue to be the message for us fans this season is to wait. Sure the front office and coaching staff are going to “work harder” but in the end all a Wolves fan can really do is wait. Patiently, very patiently, very very patiently. And then, just maybe the team can find their true identity. Heck right now any identity for this team would do.
Four Factors Courtesy of Statsheet.com
Can the Wolves please just play first quarters for a while? Because they don’t show up for the last 3 anyway apparently. A quick rundown of thoughts tonight before some more complete ones over the weekend.
In other Wolves news, sadly Al Jefferson’s grandmother passed away in Florida on Thursday but not before he was able to see her. Thoughts and prayers should go out to him and his family from all Wolves fans.
Four Factors courtesy of Statsheet.com
Yet another tough Wolves game to watch as they could only muster one good quarter in the first followed by the superior Blazers outplaying them in the last 3.
Some quick thoughts and observations:
Next up is the Dallas Mavericks on Friday Night.
So Wolves fans what do you think of this team?
Was Kahn lying or telling the truth when he said that the Wolves were going to be exciting to watch this season? After a buzzer-beating win against New Jersey in the opener you would have said yes I’m sure. That of course was only if you hung around for the 4th quarter after 3 of the worst quarters of basketball in Timberwolves history. After giving the top-rated Celtics all they could handle this past week in a 92-90 loss you would have probably said yes too. And maybe even after they lost to the Clippers by 3 in a game that wasn’t really that close you might have said yes as well. But what about those other 4 games? Have we seen worse basketball than that? (Ok maybe the Gophers a few years back or your son or daughter’s 7th-grade traveling team)
So what exactly have we figured out with this team after seven mostly bad games?
So far it looks like Jonny Flynn belongs in the NBA and can/should be a legit point guard in the league. He’s a heady player and with some good coaching and development he appears to have the skills to become the “special” player that Kahn and Rambis have billed him to be. Unfortunately, however, as far as I can tell this is the only good news that this young Timberwolves team has for its fans. Really I can’t think of anything else that I feel good about when evaluating this team as a fan or a basketball junkie, or from an advanced stats perspective, or any perspective really after their first 7 games. Can you? Did you just think and think and think and think some more for something, anything, else that is a positive. What did you come up with? If you answered that a) Pecherov looked good against Boston, b) our second best player is injured so the real verdict is still out or c) we have some good cap space and picks coming up next offseason, I’ll give you a pat on the back for trying. But the list of bad things and really big question marks about everything else is a little frightening isn’t it? In just seven games we can now call into question just about everything with a team that didn’t even have any lofty expectations other than to play hard, play uptempo, and entertain us as fans of the team.
Taking a deeper look into how many ways this team is just not right is a little unsettling so let’s run through it as quick as possible:
So what does all that tell us exactly? The Wolves have problems, lots of them. Yes we all knew there were going to be problems, especially early, but it’s the scope and specific ones that are so unsettling. While even the most patient fan can understand growing pains from a young team early in a season that has a new everything (players, coaches, gm) and a difficult new offense to learn to boot, it’s obvious that the team has some potentially serious issues. Most notably and almost centrally is the question of whether the triangle offense really is right for this team as it is currently constructed. Jonny Flynn and Ramon Sessions are great at creating offense when driving to the hoop and in the two-man-game off the pick and roll. They both are good at picking apart a defense that way and getting to the rim and as a result the free-throw line. Meanwhile Al Jefferson is one of the best offensive low-post players in the league (when healthy of course.) None of these strengths the team possesses right now is used effectively in the triangle offense which thrives on versatility and shooting, two things the Wolves clearly lack. Something’s gotta give right?
What exactly is going to give though? Is Rambis going to just say after one of these awful games, “You know what the triangle offense doesn’t really fit this team well at all and we need to make a switch to an offense built on posting up Al and running the pick and roll with either Jonny or Ramon.” Not exactly something a first year coach, in his first big head coaching role, is going to say if you ask me. Of course that has to be far more likely than him going to Kahn, his boss remember, and saying “You know what, your two biggest personnel moves this summer don’t work well at all for my type of offense so let me know what we can get for them via trade… and oh by the way our best player really isn’t a great fit either so see what you can get for him while your at it.” I don’t think either is very likely and the only alternative is going to be more games like the ones against the Bucks and the Blazers. (Although tonight’s game should be much like the Suns game where the Wolves look fairly good against a team that doesn’t play much defense and likes to run.)
More than likely the answer to this question and all of the many questions is going to be for us all to wait. Wait first for Love to come back and see just how much he helps. He should help quite a bit as our best all-around player with some good passing from the high post, excellent rebounding, and by helping to start more fastbreaks. But even if he makes the triangle run better and smoother it won’t completely solve the problem that Flynn, Sessions, and Jefferson all are leaving their biggest strengths on the table. So it’s going to be very interesting to see just when it stops becoming the player’s fault for not knowing the offense well enough, not adjusting correctly, and not being in 100% shape, and starts becoming the coaches fault for trying just too hard to create the perfect offensive puzzle with pieces that just don’t fit.
