Category: News/Rumors

With Nicolas Batum Unlikely, Is Andre Iguodala Next?

Will the Sixers finally be able to move Andre Iguodala, whos been on the trade block for what feels like forever?
Will the Sixers finally be able to move Andre Iguodala, who's been on the trade block for what feels like forever?

With Jason Quick of the Oregonian reporting that the Blazers met with Nicolas Batum and stated the team would match any offer in addition to being unwilling to negotiate a sign and trade, the Timberwolves were effectively eliminated from the possibility of Batum calling Target Center home next season. Well, what now? Per KSTP’s Darren Wolfson, Philadelphia 76ers have reached out to the Wolves to gauge their interest in Andre Iguodala.

Now, the Sixers are coming off of a playoff year and Iggy is coming off of an All-Star season, but he’s been on the block for what seems like forever and the Sixers reportedly are looking to unload his contract. Coincidentally, Iggy would fill the need of small forward for the Timberwolves. Naturally, the stars must be aligning, right? Well, it’s not that easy.

First off, you’d think a team with as much cap space as the Wolves have (or don’t have) that matching Iggy’s $13 million dollar salary would be a cinch, but it’s not. Seriously, it’s a glut of $4-$5 million dollar deals, and Kevin Love’s exetension.

Secondly, if the Sixers really want to do a deal with Minnesota, they may have to sell low on Iggy. But hey, they made the first call, so beggars can’t be choosers, right? I think the other saying is that beggars may have to deal their best player in a salary dump, but I could be wrong.

With all of that being said, I take to ESPN’s Trade Machine, and there are really three realistic offers for the Sixers to consider if they would just be shipping out Iggy.

Trade #1: Derrick Williams, Brad Miller (Buyout), Martell Webster (Buyout), and the Grizzlies pick.

Trade #2: Wes Johnson, Brad Miller (Buyout), Martell Webster (Buyout), and the Grizzlies pick.

Trade #3: Nikola Pekovic, Brad Miller (Buyout), Martell Webster (Buyout), and the Grizzlies pick.

Obviously the best return for the Sixers right now is Pekovic, but that would leave the Wolves with Darko Milicic as the only other center on the roster, and Philly could only offer Spencer Hawes in return; no thanks.

Trade number two would make sense from a roster standpoint, but not from a talent standpoint, since the Sixers would have a sudden need for a small forward.

Should they take Trade #1 they would be adding Williams to the power forward platoon of Elton Brand, Arnette Moultrie, and Thaddeus Young, who is also power forward capable. At first I thought that if the Sixers were absolutely set on shedding salary they amnesty Brand in addition to buying out Miller and Webster, but Brand is an $18 million dollar expiring contract, so that’s not happening.

See what I mean about the Sixers likely having to sell low on Iguodala to make a Wolves deal? Yet, I think the Wolves probably agree to the first two without blinking. It’s certainly a tough spot, but it’ll be an even tougher season if they don’t add something to small forward position.

What can Iguodala offer, besides being better than the in-house options?

-          He’s just 28, has two years and $27 milllion left on his deal, and therefore wouldn’t interfere with extending Kevin Love or Ricky Rubio in 3 years.

-          His 39.4% 3 point percentage likely won’t hold, but he’s average at worst from that range, and the Wolves were average from that range on a good night last season.

-          His defensive metrics were great last season posting 4.2 (1.0 being average) Defensive Win Shares and a 98 Defensive Rating (100 being average) last season.  He’s even a good defensive playmaker, averaging 1.7 steals per game for his career.

-          Additionally he can rebound and set up teammates.

Compared to what we saw last season from the Timberwolves’ small forwards, Iggy’s 7.3 Win Shares are greater than Webster’s (1.8), Wes Johnson’s (0.6) and Mike Beasley’s (0.5). He may not blow you away, but he’s the type of player who could improve the Timberwolves and he’s available, for the right price.

As far as the price, no one knows right now what Philadelphia wants right now; could be cap relief, picks, or some combo of the two. Maybe the Sixers are cool with not getting a player of equal caliber in exchange for their All-star, I know I am. All that I really know is that, while I like Chase Budinger, I’m not sure it’s a great thing for him to be a team’s biggest offseason addition.

(Final note: I know that they could still make a run for OJ Mayo, Courtney Lee, and/or Alexy Shved, but those guys are all shooting guards.)

Wolves don't offer qualifiers to Randolph or Beasley

A little late, but in case you missed it, the Timberwolves made a move that shouldn’t come as a relief, but totally does. From ESPN:

The Minnesota Timberwolves declined to make qualifying offers to Beasley and Anthony Randolphon Saturday, making them both unrestricted free agents.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise, but a lot of (fatalist) Timberwolves fans expected the Wolves to extend offers to both Randolph and Beasley despite two years’ evidence that we weren’t going to see much production from either player. Both are tantalizing talents, but neither are productive players.

One thing to keep in mind: the Wolves still own Bird rights, so sign and trades are still an option. We will have much more on this topic coming up, both on the cap space this creates and the future destinations for Beasley and Randolph.

Rumor: Wolves interested in Alexey Shved?


Here’s the tough part about this story: Alexey Shved is a prospect from Russia, and as such, reports regarding any future NBA destinations come with questions of legitimacy. However, according to several reports, David Kahn has serious interest in Shved.

For those of you who haven’t heard of Shved, you are pardoned. Allow me to introduce him, beginning with the negatives. Shved is listed at 6’5 (although I’ve seen reports that he is as tall as 6’7), but just 161 lbs. At that height, he could play shooting guard in the NBA. But he will need to put on muscle, or he will get abused on defense. Because he isn’t incredibly strong, Shved has a tendency to avoid contact, which means he occasionally relies on his jump shot excessively.

But that jump shot is niiiice. Watch the video above. Shved has a smooth stroke, and he can shoot both off a pass and off the dribble. Scouts love his handle as well as his ability to see the floor and his basketball IQ. His crossover looks a lot like Rubio’s, deceptively deceptive and effective. Most notably, Shved is confident, and he can create shots for himself. If the Wolves did sign him, he wouldn’t need Rubio to create every shot for him. He would, however, offer another alley-oop target for Ricky. Though Shved isn’t strong, he is very quick and very bouncy.

Does all of this sound a little too good to be true? The only real knock against Shved is his strength, and he would be coming into a league that offers some of the best strength conditioning in the world. Whether or not he would ever fill out, his skillset certainly indicates that he could contribute well to an NBA team.

The main question, of course, is whether or not Shved could be bought out. He is under contract with CSKA Moscow for another year, so if the Wolves want to get him, they will probably have to pay money for him initially as well.

Personally, I’m excited. In Shved, the Wolves would gain the shooter they desperately crave as well as a shot creator who, unlike Brandon Roy, actually has a working set of knees. Shved might be just as much of a gamble as Roy, but personally, I’d rather bet on the guy who hasn’t been forced to retire from basketball due to career-ending knee injuries. Just my two cents, though.

Draft Night Recap: The Budinger Trade

Was Budinger worth the 18th pick in the draft?

Jonah will be along later to talk about the Robbie Hummel pick. For the sake of posterity, here’s a list of all the players the Timberwolves could have drafted with the 18th pick that they traded for Chase Budinger. Let’s assume that Minnesota would have been looking for a wing shooter or a shot blocker if they had kept the pick. We are also assuming that they didn’t trade their pick up.

18. Terrence Jones- I like Jones, but Minnesota doesn’t need another 3-4 tweener.

19. Andrew Nicholson-Again, Nicholson played power forward in college. I think we are good.

20. Evan Fournier- Fournier is a wing, but he was a bit of a stretch at 20, and one of the knocks on him was his outside shooting ability. Pass.

21. Jared Sullinger- Boston got a huge steal by drafting lottery talent at 21, but the Wolves, again, don’t need a power forward.

22. Fab Melo- Thanks to a merciful God (and Danny Ainge), David Kahn didn’t trade up for him, as was rumored.

23. John Jenkins- Jenkins is an excellent shooter and as such, he’s the first real challenge to the Budinger trade. But would you rather draft someone who was a good shooter in college or trade for someone who has proven to be a good shooter in the NBA? I’m good with Budinger.

24. Jared Cunningham- He can’t really shoot, but of note (kind of), I once had a top comment on one of his YouTube videos. Wait, is that the sort of thing I should keep to myself?

25. Tony Wroten Jr.- A point guard who can’t shoot. The irony of this pick would have been rich. Let’s just move on.

26. Miles Plumlee- Lololol.

27. Arnett Moultrie- Moultrie slid, but he’s a good value at 27. Still, he’s yet another 3-4 tweener.

28. Perry Jones III- This one stings a little. Jones has superstar potential and he STILL slid to the 28th pick because of concerns regarding his knee. He could be a taller Tracy McGrady, he could be another Anthony Randolph. We don’t know. But it would have been fun to find out on the Wolves.

29. Marquis Teague- Teague is a point guard. We are set, thanks. Save your lame David Kahn/PG jokes.

30. Festus Ezeli- Derek was a fan. Ezeli is tall, strong, and athletic, and apparently a decent shot blocker. He also would have been a wild stretch at the 18th pick.

All in all, a good trade by David Kahn. There’s an excellent chance Budinger will start for the Wolves next season (barring any unforeseen free agent deals that make all of our jaws drop). At 18, the Wolves weren’t going to find that kind of talent at the positions they needed.

Well done, Mr. Kahn.

Rumor: Brandon Roy to the Timberwolves?

From ESPN 1500:

According to two league sources, the Wolves plan on making [Brandon Roy] a three-time All-Star a two-year contract offer. The money is unknown.

Like everyone else, I’m a little bit taken aback by this bit of news, but I’m not entirely displeased by it. Breaking this down by arguments:

  1. A multi-year contract? What are the Wolves thinking? Oddly enough, I think it makes a lot of sense to give Roy two years. For one thing, plenty of teams are going to be willing to offer Roy a one year deal. He has no emotional attachment to Minnesota (“Aww, the team that drafted me, then decided that Randy Foye and cash were a fair trade?”). Offering another year would give the Wolves a leg up on Miami or other bigger name suitors. Moreover, signing Roy for two years will not only guarantee him paychecks for two years, but it also might allow the Wolves to spend less per year on him. Also worth considering: Roy sat out last year, and will doubtless be a little bit rusty. Giving him some time to work into the system, without worrying about next year’s contract, might be worthwhile for the Wolves.
  2. Do we want a driving guard whose knees got so bad he had to retire? This is the most pressing concern. We have no idea what Roy still has left in the tank. Modern medicine has worked wonders on athletes before (we are looking at you, Kobe Bryant). The question is whether Roy is worth the gamble.
  3. How big of a gamble is he? Enormous. Either Roy will work very well for the Wolves, or he won’t work at all, and his knees are the thin line that separates both possibilites. Roy was never an elite three point shooter (38% from behind the arc in the season with his highest eFG%), so if he can’t get to the hoop (where he was over 60% for most of his career), he won’t be able to stand in the corner and jack up threes any better than Wayne Ellington or Martell Webster. On the other hand, if he can even come close to approaching the productivity he displayed in Portland, Minnesota will have added an extremely dangerous weapon. One of the areas in which the Wolves struggled badly last year was in shot creation. When a play broke down, the most reliable option Minnesota had was an isolation play for Michael Beasley. This, unsurprisingly, rarely ended well. 70% of Brandon Roy from 2008-09 would be a massive improvement.
  4. Speaking of Beasley, what does this mean for him? Signing Roy would probably spell the end of Beasley/Randolph in Minnesota. If both players re-signed, the Wolves would only be able to offer Roy a mid-level exception, hardly enough to sway Roy away from contenders rumored to be chasing him, like Indiana and Chicago.

This would be an experiment, to be sure, but not a bad one. A healthy Roy would be an enormous boost for a playoff push next year. An unhealthy Roy ties up some cap space, but Minnesota has other options to free up room in this scenario.

One more rumor worth mentioning: David Aldridge from NBA.com says that Houston has been discussing dealing Kevin Martin to Minnesota for the 18th pick. Martin would add a three point shooter that the Wolves desperately needed last season. He would not, however, add a lick of defense, and his contract is burdensome ($13 million next year). We will keep you updated on both possibilities.

White's promise

Royce White came to workout for the Timberwolves just last week. The workout went well — not spectacular — but maybe just good enough to tip Kahn’s hand at taking him with the 18th pick of this year’s draft.

Word from ESPN’s Chad Ford is that White, as of yesterday, has cancelled the rest of his workouts with other teams. Ford tweeted yesterday,”He’s pulled out of all remaining workouts and gone silent. Not injured.”

The only explanation for White’s sudden hiatus means that he must’ve gotten a promise from a team he’s pretty happy with in the first round. Draft promises are sticky situations. Who’s to say what opportunities present themselves on draft night in terms of players falling or even trades? Things can change very quickly and that promise your team just made may end up wrecking everything up.

So who’s stupid enough to promise White a selection?

Perhaps it was David Kahn and the Timberwolves.

Since working out here last week, White has been enamored with the idea of playing for the Wolves. Minneapolis is White’s homecity, and there’s almost no better feeling than coming home to play for the team that you idolized and rooted for growing up. White’s workout here was good but his interview was better. Since the workout process started, White has been very open and honest about his anxiety disorder since revealing the truth mid-way through the college season.

Head coach at Iowa State, Fred Hoiberg, has also been outright and truthful about his former player. Hoiberg believes that White’s game is best-suited for the NBA, as long as any coach is willing to buy in to White’s unorthodox style of playing the point as a power forward. And because Hoiberg, a former player and exec for the Timberwolves, has such close ties to Minnesota, there may be some hidden information that he’s given Kahn that no other team has received.

That’s all speculation at this point, even the promise, but there is something fishy going on, even if it’s not with Minnesota. According to Ford, both the Celtics and Hawks have come to like White’s talents, as well as the Warriors. But none of them are in the right position to actually take him, except the Warriors at 7, which may be a little high. Instead, the Wolves, sitting at pick 18, are in prime real estate to take White. So even if that promise came from a team below the Wolves’ pick, there may be a wrinkle in their plans already, unless they plan on trading up for him.

The Wolves really do have a great pick with 18. There are many options available. Trades will be flying and it could surely get moved as a casualty. Or they could stay-put and take a flier on someone with great talent like White and see what he can do; he’s certainly the type of player that, if his head is on right, can replace Michael Beasley’s output plus more. It’s a good time to be a Wolves fan.

Wolf Tracks: Timberwolves trade idea

Bradford Doolittle of Basketball Prospectus wrote an article for ESPN Insider that highlighted three solid trade ideas that have some ties to the upcoming draft. And while I still believe the Wolves will likely back out of the draft in hopes of finding veteran help via trade, Doolittle has other plans, completely contrary to my theory.

Doolittle offers the idea of trading Derrick Williams and the #18 pick to the Charlotte Bobcats for the #2 pick. What the ?!? Now it’s an exciting idea to many, including myself. Although I still think that a veteran is of more use to Adelman and next year’s roster, a skilled player from the top of a draft much better than last year’s would be nice. There are multiple options the Wolves could go for at #2 including Andre Drummond, the much-needed shot-blocking presence the Wolves need, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, a pure gymrat with strong skills from the small forward position, or even Bradley Beal, a go-to scorer at the 2-guard.

Doolittle says that Beal would likely be the pick, and I can’t disagree with him. He’s likely the most NBA-ready guard in the entire draft and fills a huge need for the Wolves. After all, they’ve never had a serious starting shooting guard since Latrell Sprewell, and that was short-lived.

Kevin Love named to All-NBA Second Team

Kevin Love was named to the All-NBA Second Team

Today the NBA announced its All-NBA teams, and, needless to say, Kevin Love was elected to team numero dos. Now, honestly, this honor means next-to-nothing except that Love must’ve had a very good season to the oblivious simpleton, and his accomplishments didn’t go unnoticed by the NBA. But if these “teams” were legitimately concocted to honor the league’s best at their respected position, then I believe our very own K-Love should be shining alongside four others on the All-NBA First Team. Sure, a team of Kevin Durant and Lebron James playing the two forward slots is too good to be true but you can’t mean to tell me that either can play substantial minutes at the power forward position.

It’s no big deal but I guess it’s worth congratulating him for. He had one hell of a season, one certainly to remember, and, hopefully, it’ll only get better from here on out. Congrats, Kevin.

Rubio second in ROY voting

Ricky got second in the ROY race, without the help of homers.

As expected, Kyrie Irving won the Rookie of the Year award. The only competition he faced was James Harden’s Sixth Man of the Year, a tight race for “which award will be more of a blow out?” Irving was fantastic all season, averaging 21.8 points and 6.4 assists per 36 minutes, but he was also clutch when the Cavaliers were in a tight game. In the last five minutes of a game with a margin of five points or less, Irving shot 54% from the field, and a stunning 67% from three point range. Congrats to Kyrie for a well-deserved honor.

Ricky Rubio finished second in the voting, despite missing every game after March 9 with an ACL tear. Here’s a chart, from ESPN.com, with the totals.

Kyrie Irving, Cle 117 2 1 592
Ricky Rubio, Min 49 23 170
Kenneth Faried, Den 1 30 34 129
Kawhi Leonard, SAS 1 9 15 47
Iman Shumpert, NY 1 7 7 33

Pardon me for a second, while I have a word with the voters. *ahem* “Would everyone who gave a first place vote to Faried, Leonard, and Shumpert step up to the podium for a minute please? Thank you.” *SMACK SLAP SMACK SMACK SLAP*

Look, I love Kenneth Faried as much as the next guy. His jersey is prominently featured on my list of things I’d like for my birthday (because we always need pick-up ball attire). He has alternately thrilled and impressed me with his high-flying play and his constant passion and energy. But in no way could you make a statistical case that he deserves the rookie of the year award. Picking him was a total homer move, one that discredits his finish in voting. The same goes for Kawhi Leonard, and as for Iman Shumpert, I just…I don’t…ugh.

I know I’m making a big deal out of something fairly trivial. The right guy won (in a landslide, I’m happy to say), the right guy got second, and the right guy got third (I think Isaiah Thomas should have finished fourth, but that’s neither here nor there). I’m just happy that Rubio got second without the help of some local sportswriter who saw ninety percent of his games and ten percent of Kyrie Irving’s giving Ricky a first place vote.

Ryan Anderson wins MIP, defies dictionary definition of "improvement"

Where in the world is Nikola Pekovics Most Improved Player award?
Where in the world is Nikola Pekovic's Most Improved Player award?

I started writing this post by copying down some numbers from Ryan Anderson and Nikola Pekovic‘s Basketball Reference pages. As I was writing down Anderson’s, I started noticing a huge jump in some of the numbers. Had I been wrong in thinking that Anderson didn’t deserve to win the Most Improved Player award? Could I have over-estimated Pek’s improvement? His PER had taken an unheard of leap forward. His total rebounds per 36 minutes had gone up by two entire rebounds. His personal fouls had gone from an obscene 7.3 per 36 minutes to a much more manageable…wait…

I had the wrong tab open. I was looking at Nikola Pekovic’s numbers. Whoops. This needs to be argued.

Apparently, the MIP voting went Ryan Anderson, Ersan Ilyasova, then Pek. Here are some numbers, again via Basketball Reference, for Ryan Anderson (numbers from last year, this year, and the difference between the two):

Points Per 36 Min Field Goal % True Shooting % Usage Rate Total Rebounds Per 36 PER
Ryan Anderson 17.2, 18.0=0.8 .430, .439=0.8 .591, .589=-0.002 20.3, 21.2=0.9 9.0, 8.6=-0.4 19.0, 21.2=2.2

For those of you who are too lazy to read a chart (I don’t REALLY blame you), I’ll break it down: Anderson’s field goal percentage went up a minuscule amount, while his shots per game (not listed), went up drastically. While his rebounds per game climbed, his pace-adjusted rebounding numbers (TRB per 36) actually went down a little bit. His PER did climb, although not substantially.

A fairly good argument could be made that Ryan Anderson didn’t improve, his minutes just went up.

Now a look at Ersa Ilyasova’s numbers:

Points Per 36 Min Field Goal % True Shooting % Usage Rate Total Rebounds Per 36 PER
Ersan Ilyasova 13.7, 17.0=3.3 .436, .492=0.56 .516, .577=0.061 19.1, 20.1=1.0 8.7, 11.5=2.8 14.4, 20.5=6.1

Ilyasova improved drastically this season, considerably more than Anderson in every single statistical category listed here. The biggest jump we saw in Ilyasova’s numbers, per the NBA Stats Cube, were from Ilyasova’s three pointers from “above the break”, or any three pointer that wasn’t from the corner. Ilyasova’s percentage from those shots went up an incredible 19%, from 27%-46%. It’s not even like Ersan stopped taking the shots…he only took 10 fewer this season.

So Ilyasova’s numbers took a huge jump. But not as huge a jump as Pek’s. The problem with using pace-adjusted statistics to measure Pekovic’s growth is that he played decently well in 2011 when he was able to stay out of foul trouble, which was never. He couldn’t stay on the court long enough to make any kind of significant impact, committing an absurd 7.3 fouls per 36 minutes. So here are his non-pace adjusted statistics:

Points Per Game Field Goal % True Shooting % Usage Rate Total Rebounds Per Game PER
Nikola Pekovic 5.5, 13.9=8.4 .517, .564=0.47 .573, .607=0.34 19.4, 21.9=2.5 3.0, 7.4= 4.4 11.2, 21.4=10.2

Like Anderson, an opponent of Pek’s MIP campaign could make the case that Pekovic’s numbers only went up because his minutes went up. I disagree, and I would point to Pek’s PER as evidence. I mean, are you SEEING that jump? He went up DOUBLE DIGITS in his Player Efficiency Rating. That’s insane. Not only that, but getting more minutes constitutes improvement for Pek. He cut down his fouls considerably, which showed a huge improvement on the defensive end. Pek even managed to improve his rebounding this season from a pace-adjusted standpoint, which is a feat playing next to a rebound vacuum like Kevin Love.

These numbers speak for themselves pretty well. While Anderson undeniably improved his game, especially from a confidence standpoint, there is literally no statistical argument that makes him the Most Improved Player this year. If you want to make the argument that a player should be credited for improving his game from a pace-adjusted angle, Ilyasova is your MIP. If not, the incredible jump in PER and overall relevance of Nikola Pekovic should help you decide.

I’m annoyed that the MIP voters couldn’t get this one right. “Improvement” is much, much easier to measure statistically than the “Valuable” in MVP. It’s simple subtraction, take this year minus last year, and the biggest difference is the highest improvement. Am I missing something here? Seriously, I’m asking. I want to know if I am.

Of course I have a vested cheering interest. Of course I wanted to see Pekovic win. But the numbers point pretty clearly in my favor.